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Part 1e : Lifetime Customer Value

Tue, Nov 24, 2009

Small Business Marketing

This article will be looking at the value and how to of calculating the lifetime value of your customers.

This is 1 of 2 articles that focus on marketing metrics and the value of analyzing and measuring all your marketing efforts and customer data.

Once you understand your marketing metrics and customer data you are in an incredibly valuable position whereby you can tell exactly what works and what does not, what you should do more of and what you should stop doing with regards to your marketing spend.

The lifetime customer value metric aims to calculate how much each of your customers are worth on average through a certain period of time, usually a year.

Let’s say on average each customer spends R4000 with you over a period of 1 year. What can you do with this information? Well, this number tells you exactly what you can spend in acquiring each customer.

Most businesses only focus on generating more profit from the first sale then they spend on advertising or other lead generation sources.

This does not take into account your back end sales.

So, let’s say that as a personal trainer you begin a new lead generation campaign for R4000 each month and get 10 new customers at R300 each, for your fitness training program. That would be R3000 revenue off your R4000 advertising spend.

Initially this would seem like a loss, and most business would stop this advertising immediately.

What’s not being taken into account here however is the value of these customers after the initial sale. Now after our previous tutorials on back end sales, you understand that these customers are not only worth their initial sale, but any sales you can make to them in future.

So, let’s say you had a good backend in place and and know that 50% of your customers will make 2 additional purchases from you over the next 2 months at R400 each.

So now we know that the 10 customers we acquired with our new campaign are actually worth the R300 initial sale (10 * R300 = R3000) PLUS 50% * backend (5 * R400 = R2000) = R5000.

So, in reality the advertising campaign is profitable and not the other way around, as we initially though.

(By profitable make sure you taken into account any additional costs in acquiring those customers, that may not be covered by the cost of the lead generation campaign)

By understanding this metric, it opens up many more avenues of advertising and marketing that you would not have considered before and gives you the power of knowing exactly what you can spend to acquire each customer.

This calculation does require you to have certain data on hand, and most businesses won’t have the customer data on hand to make this calculation right away. You may have to start going over purchase records to be able to put this data into a usable form.

Actions:

What I would recommend however is begin tracking the correct data from today.

Make sure you track each customer, what they buy, when they bought and at what price over a period of at least 6 months.

Make sure you implement a good back end sales process and optimize it to your satisfaction.

After 6 months of tracking your customers and sales that have resulted from your current front and back end sales process, you will now have the data to calculate lifetime customer value.

The calculation: Simply take your total revenue for the 6 month period and divide it by your number of customers. This will equal your average customer lifetime value.

Now you will be able to compare the results of all advertising & lead generation campaigns against customer lifetime value and have an accurate picture of which campaigns are profitable or not.

You do this and you will be be able to run profitable and successful campaigns in many mediums and locations that you competitors wont, because to them it will seem like an unprofitable endeavor. It will leave them mystified on how you could possibly be doing what you are doing.

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3 Responses to “Part 1e : Lifetime Customer Value”

  1. David says:

    NO no no. LTV is largely impractical. It takes tremendous sophistication to make it meaningful and rarely does the data support it well enough to be bothered. Customer ranking will almost always be unchanged by using LTV instead of current value.

    See articles at http://www.objectivebusiness.com

    Sorry this was so short but I am frustrated – two posts I made got killed by the submission process already.

  2. David says:

    Okay that worked – I will try more. Customer value is almost always a good RELATIVE measure, not an ABSOLUTE measure. The numbers are almost never good enough to use as spending guidelines – though they often are used for just that by marketers who really just want budget justification. What I see time and time again is really crude metrics used to business case campaigns and measure marketing ROI when at best they are good enough only for identifying which customers are top 20% and bottem 20%.

    LTV adds more noise than value to the situation since it necessarily involves predicting future events and most companies accuracy is very low when it comes to acquisition, retention and cross-sales scoring – which are core foundations of such a model.

    Best business advice is to measure current value and potential then manage to close the gap. That at least is relatively solid and directionally correct.

    LTV is mostly a myth that certain consultants (P&R)came up with to extend the life of their franchise with the “new” idea of “customer equity” which is really just discounted cash flows which accountants and investment bankers have been doing for decades.

    I wrote for the Canadian Marketing Association’s Database Analytics and Marketing Technology council’s national convention on Customer Profitability. You can read the articles here: http://www.objectivebusiness.com

    PS Good for you to write this ! I do not mean to be negaitive….it is nice to see others thinking and sharing thoughts on this important topic.

    David McNab, CA

  3. admin says:

    David, thanks for the detailed comments! I can see this definitely deserves a more thorough investigation on my part. I will look into this in more detail and hopefully be able to put together a more rounded post soon on this topic. Thanks again.

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